Great-Power Rivalry and the Nuclear Development of Weak States: The Cases of the Two Koreas

초록

This article analyzes the two Koreas’ nuclear development from the perspective of great-power rivalry. Based on structural realism, this article argues that nuclear proliferation is meaningfully correlated with the strength of competition between rival great powers. As a comparative case, South Korea’s failed nuclear development in the 1970s can be explained by a weakening of great-power rivalry resulting not only from détente between the United States and the Soviet Union but also from the reconciliation between the United States and China. By contrast, an emerging rivalry between the United States and China since the end of the Cold War has structurally permitted North Korea to develop a nuclear weapon. Fundamental resolution of the North Korea nuclear issue will therefore scarcely be possible without structural relief of the ongoing competition between the United States and China.

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