Target Effect Prediction Using the Random Coupling Model in Complex Electromagnetic Environments

초록

When electronic systems within enclosures are exposed to high-power electromagnetic fields, functional disruption or damage may occur, highlighting the need for predictive models that assess the likelihood of such effects in advance. In enclosure-based scenarios, where the geometry is complex and large relative to the wavelength, electromagnetic field coupling exhibits significant variability. In addition, the susceptibility of electronic devices is uncertain, making deterministic prediction difficult and motivating the need for a stochastic modeling approach. This article presents a framework that combines random coupling model-based statistical predictions of coupled power at the target port with a threshold distribution obtained through direct-injection measurements, where the limited data are fitted using a Weibull model. The proposed method is validated through experimental measurements in a wave-chaotic cavity, with comparisons based on Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrap resampling, and two-sided p-value analysis. The close agreement between the predicted and measured outcomes confirms the capability of the framework to reliably estimate target effect probabilities in complex electromagnetic environments.

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