전력수요 변동률을 이용한 연휴에 대한 단기 전력수요예측

초록

Fuzzy linear regression method has been used for short-term load forecasting of the special day in the previous researches. However, considerable load forecasting errors would be occurring if a special day is located on Saturday or Monday. In this paper, a new load forecasting method for the consecutive holidays is proposed with the consideration of the power demand variation rate. In the proposed method, a exponential smoothing model reflecting temperature is used to short-term load forecasting for Sunday during the consecutive holidays and then the loads of the special day during the consecutive holidays is calculated using the hourly power demand variation rate between the previous similar consecutive holidays. The proposed method is tested with 10 cases of the consecutive holidays from 2009 to 2012. Test results show that the average accuracy of the proposed method is improved about 2.96% by comparison with the fuzzy linear regression method.

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