Ukraine-Russia War and a Nuclear Crisis: How Dangerous It Could Be?

초록

One of the most worrisome aspects of the current war on Ukraine is its possibility of escalating to a nuclear level. How likely is Moscow actually employing nuclear weapons in the conflict? Is this crisis more or less likely to get worse than other nuclear crises? I try to find out some answers by looking at specific characteristics of the ongoing nuclear crisis. The paper begins with basic framework of nuclear crisis developed by Bell and Macdonald. Then I delve into the development and evolution of Russia’s nuclear strategy. By applying Bell and Macdonald’s theoretical framework on the ongoing nuclear crisis I cautiously conclude that the current crisis is closer to the staircase model, where a nuclear first use incentive is moderate to relatively high and crisis controllability is high. Therefore, the possibility of the current crisis escalating to a nuclear level may not be so high. There is certainly a risk of analyzing an ongoing crisis and future research needs to address theoretical and practical shortcomings.

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