프로젝트 수익 추정 방식에 대한 연구- 활동의 기간이 확률적이고 중도 포기 옵션이 존재하는 경우 -

초록

This study is about the method of estimating the payoff of the project. In this study, the duration of the activity is probabilistic and there is a drop-out option to abandon the project. Two methods were proposed for payoff estimation. The first method uses the expected value of the activity duration, and the second method generates a distribution of project payoff from the probability distribution of the activity duration. The validity of the two methods was verified through simulation and the advantages and disadvantages of both methods were identified. The results of this study can be commonly applied to probabilistic project schedule problems.

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