North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Development and Crisis Stability in the Korean Peninsula: Lessons, Pitfalls, and Workable Strategy

초록

During the last couple of years, there has been several perilous developments happened in and around the Korean Peninsula that has worsened crisis stability in the region. North Korea has modified and strengthened its nuclear arsenal through a series of various types of missile tests. The abrogation of the INF Treaty by the US and Russia in August 2019 opened the door for dangerous nuclear arms race and the change of nuclear approach toward escalate-to-deescalate tendency with fielding of low-yield nuclear devices. Strategically similar South Asia’s assertive and provocative nuclear posture and force deployment by India and Pakistan have made the region an extremely dangerous place where a calamitous event is waiting to happen. Under the circumstances, maintaining or restoring crisis stability is extremely daunting task. One of the key principles is to never give Kim Jong Un any reason to pre-delegate his nuclear use authority. The utility of nuclear weapons should also be re-evaluated: warfighting, limited strike, escalate-to-deescalate, etc. are all extremely prone to crisis instability.

키워드