Crisis Stability and Escalation Control Challenge in South Asia: Pakistan’s Nuclear Development Efforts and Beyond

초록

India by acquiring nuclear capability. Pakistan’s low-level conventional provocation without worrying about retaliation by India thanks to the deterrent ability of nuclear weapons at the strategic level has been a worrisome trend in the region. Recently, the adoption of new doctrines and postures by both states has prompted them to develop more warheads and delivery systems. Thus, the arms race continues, the possibility of a conflict breakout and escalation of crisis heightens, and the overall strategic situation worsens in the region. Yet at the same time, Islamabad’s provocative action has subsided as time goes on and New Delhi’s calculated response seems to be working. Thus, through learning tough experiences that there is not much nuclear weapons can do except deterrence, the two adversaries seem to be gradually restoring the status quo as well. What is happening around the Korean Peninsula looks similar to the South Asian region. As a conventionally weaker state, North Korea has been developing more nuclear weapons and strengthening its nuclear arsenal. Important lessons drawn from South Asia are that maintaining crisis stability and escalation control are as important as developing robust deterrence capability and firm resolve. Also, as in the Pakistani case, Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capability would not necessarily provide them decisive tools for their “final victory.” Therefore, besides strong sanctions and steady military readiness, rapprochement through dialogue and confidence building measures will be crucial to keep stability in the region and prevent a crisis getting out of control.

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