中国创业板市场上市前股利政策的信号传递效应:兼论上市前突击分红

초록

Based on data from prospectuses of GEM listed companies in China, the signaling effect of pre-listing dividend distribution policy is investigated. If the dividend signaling effect exists in Chinese IPO markets, there is likely a negative relationship between pre-listing dividends and IPO underpricing, also a positive relationship between pre-listing dividends and IPO stock price performance. The results of the empirical analysis show that there is a reasonable correlation between pre-listing cash dividend distribution and IPO pricing and stock price performance, and different information connotations are exhibited in the primary and secondary markets. Specifically, companies that have distributed cash dividends in the three years prior to the IPO, especially those that have distributed steadily for three consecutive years, have a significantly lower IPO price suppression rate than non-distributing companies, while the cumulative IPO excess return rate is significantly higher than that of non-distributing companies. Moreover, pre-listing dividend distribution is significantly and positively correlated with the cumulative excess return at 60, 120, and 240 days after IPO, that is, companies that distribute dividends steadily before IPO have better IPO stock price performance. The study also finds that companies that distribute dividends unexpectedly before going public have more severe price depression, but their cumulative excess returns at 60, 120, and 240 days after going public are still not significantly different from that of other companies, even when higher issue depression is included. This suggests that pre-listing dividends help mitigate information asymmetry between issuers and public investors, increase the value of companies in the primary market and reduce IPO price suppression. Similarly, companies that pay stable dividends before going public are more recognized by the market, increasing the value of the company in the secondary market and increasing the cumulative IPO excess return. However, pre-listing surprise dividends do not have a signaling effect and fail to be favored by secondary market investors. By reviewing both classic and recent literature, we consider that our many-sided discussions on the signaling hypothesis and IPO stock price performance contribute to related future research in this field.

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